Four months to midterms: 12 races that will determine the Senate majority

With just under four months to go until this year's midterm elections, a top Senate Republican remains confident of the GOP's chances.

Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, recently told Fox News Digital this spring that he's "incredibly optimistic" the GOP can not only hold but expand its current 53–47 majority in the upper chamber.

But his counterpart at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is equally confident her party can flip control of the Senate, telling Fox News Digital earlier this year she sees "all the makings of a blue wave" heading into November.

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Republicans — as the party currently in power — were already up against traditional political headwinds that lead to a loss of congressional seats during midterm election years. Add to that the challenging climate fueled by persistent inflation, high gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump's underwater approval ratings. It's all a perfect storm that spells unfavorable outcomes for the GOP.

But Democrats have problems of their own as they try to win back control of the Senate, including a party brand that public opinion polling indicates is extremely unpopular.

Add to that high profile victories in this spring and summer by left-wing and socialist candidates over establishment rivals in Democratic primaries that is giving Republicans extra ammunition to portray all Democrats as extremists, or as Trump calls them, "communists."

Here's a look at a dozen competitive Senate seats in play that could potentially flip the balance of power in the chamber.

North Carolina

Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeast battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.

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Republican Michael Whatley and Democrat Roy Cooper stand together in a photo. (Angela Weiss/AFP/Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu/Getty Images)

The GOP is rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has Trump's backing after serving alongside the president's daughter-in-law and Fox News host Lara Trump in the lead up to the 2024 election.

Democrats, meanwhile, landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name recognition in North Carolina and is 6-0 when it comes to running statewide races.

North Carolina voted for Trump for his second term, but the top nonpartisan political handicapper, Cook Political Report, rates the race Lean Democrat, with Inside Elections ranking it as a toss up.

Maine

Moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in blue-leaning Maine.

Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in her 2024 presidential election bid against Trump. And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.

Susan Collins and Graham Platner. (Graeme Sloan/Getty Images ; Sophie Park/Getty Images)

But the longtime senator, who has been a top DSCC target for multiple election cycles, has proven tough to beat.

But she could prevail again as her Democratic challenger, Graham Platner continues to face controversy over his past actions and comments.

The Marine Corps veteran and oyster farmer is backed by progressive champions Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif.

Republican groups supporting Collins have been blasting Platner over controversial comments he made over a decade ago on a now deleted Reddit account, a well-publicized Nazi-linked tattoo on his chest, infidelity and allegations of sexual misconduct.

Michigan

The GOP's also aiming to flip an open seat in battleground state of Michigan, where Democrat Sen. Gary Peters is retiring.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan, seen in a Fox News Digital interview, is running for the Senate in the Great Lakes battleground state for a second straight election cycle. (Paul Steinhauser - Fox News)

Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who won the 2024 GOP Senate nomination in Michigan but narrowly lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is making a second straight bid and is the all-but-certain Republican nominee.

Democrats are dealing with a titanic two-way fight between center-left Rep. Haley Stevens, who is backed by Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and former Wayne County Health Department Director Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing candidate endorsed by Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.

The primary battle, which until Sunday also included progressive state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, has already exposed numerous Democratic Party divisions and provided Rogers, who is backed by Trump, with plenty of ammunition.

Michigan's primary will be held on August 4.

Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan, right, and former Wayne County Health Department Director Abdul El-Sayed are facing off in the August 4, 2026 Democratic Senate primary in the Great Lakes battleground state. ( )

Ohio

Democrats scored a major recruiting victory last year when former Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

A former lieutenant governor, Husted was appointed to the Senate a year ago after then-Sen. JD Vance stepped down to serve as vice president to Trump.

Ohio, once a premier general election battleground, has turned solidly red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as their only competitive candidate in the race to serve the remaining two years of Vance's term.

Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown will face off in a highly anticipated Senate race in Ohio in November. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images ; Justin Merriman/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Brown lost re-election in 2024 by roughly four points while Trump carried Ohio by 11 points.

The Cook Report and fellow nonpartisan ranker Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as a toss up, with Inside Elections ranking it as tilt Republican.

New Hampshire

Republicans see another flip opportunity in New Hampshire, where a long-held Democratic Senate seat in New England's only swing state is opening thanks to the retirement of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is the first woman in U.S. history to be elected governor and senator.

Four-term Rep. Chris Pappas is expected to capture the Democratic Senate nomination in the state's early September primary.

Longtime Democratic Sen. Janine Shaheen of New Hampshire, a former governor, announced last year that she would not be running for reelection in 2026. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

There's a primary race on the Republican side between two former senators seeking a return to Capitol Hill.

Former Sen. John E. Sununu, an older brother to former Gov. Chris Sununu, has the backing of the president and has a double-digit lead in public polling. But Trump's first-term ambassador to New Zealand, former Sen. Scott Brown, remains in the race.

Alaska

Democrats were given a big boost in the red-leaning state when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced in February that she would challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Peltola lost re-election in 2024 in the at-large district that covers the entire state by three points, while Trump carried Alaska by 11 points.

Meanwhile, there's a court battle ongoing over the Senate bid by another Dan Sullivan, a former teacher who announced his campaign in May and recently registered as a Republican.

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska is running for the Senate in 2026. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu)

Georgia

Republicans view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election in 2026.

The Peach State is a true battleground swing state.

Georgians voted for Joe Biden to be president in the 2020 elections, but then swung red to vote in Trump for a second term in 2024. FRom 2005 until 2020, the state had two Republicans representing them in the U.S. Senate before electing two Democrats to go to Washington, D.C. when Trump's first term ended.

Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat from Georgia, is seeking re-election in 2026. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Ossoff, first elected in that 2020 race, built a massive war chest while the GOP faced a nasty three-way primary battle for its nomination in the crucial sunbelt battleground state.

In November's midterms, Ossoff will face Republican Rep. Mike Collins, who was backed by Trump days ahead of last month's GOP primary runoff election.

While a recent Fox News poll indicated Ossoff holding a double digit lead, Republicans plan to run an aggressive campaign against the senator.

Republican Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia, who's running for the U.S. Senate, speaks to supporters at a campaign event, on June 14, 2026 in Woodstock, Georgia (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Iowa

Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa, a onetime swing state that's shifted to the right over the past decade.

But the GOP rallied around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is backed by Trump, in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa is her party's Senate nominee in the 2026 race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Hinson, a former local TV news anchor who flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2020, is seen as a rising star in the party.

State Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, won a contested and expensive Democratic primary over more progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls.

State Representative Josh Turek, a Democrat from Iowa and US Senate candidate, greets attendees while campaigning at the Des Moines Farmers Market in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday, May 23, 2026. (Scott Morgan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Texas

State Rep. James Talarico is hoping to become the first Democrat since 1988 to win a U.S. Senate election in right-leaning Texas.

Talarico, who hauled in an eye-popping $27 million in fundraising the first three months of this year, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March primary to secure the Democratic nomination.

The Democrat will face off in November against Trump-backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, is facing off with state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, the 2026 U.S. Senate election in the Lone Star State. (Elías Valverde II/The Dallas Morning News via Getty Images; Alberto Silva Fernandez/Getty Images)

The MAGA firebrand, carrying plenty of political baggage, ousted longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas in an expensive and combustible GOP nomination battle that went into overtime.

Minnesota

The retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is giving the GOP hopes they can flip the seat in the blue-leaning state.

And Republicans landed what they say is a top-tier recruit in former NBC sports reporter turned conservative pundit and activist Michele Tafoya, who is part of a crowded GOP field in next month's primary.

Michele Tafoya is interviewed by Fox News Digital as she launches a Republican Senate campaign in Minnesota (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive, is facing off against more moderate Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in the race for their party’s nomination.

Florida

Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who as Florida's attorney general was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis last year to fill the seat once held by now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is on a glide path to the GOP nomination in next month's primary.

Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., leaves the Senate floor after a vote in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, October 21, 2025 (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Moody will likely face off in November against Democratic challenger Alex Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, whistleblower in the 2019 Trump-Ukraine controversy and brother of Rep. Eugene Vindman.

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Polling in recent months suggests a competitive race between Moody and Vindman in right-leaning Florida.

Nebraska

Republican incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former governor, is seeking a full six-year term in the Senate representing red-leaning Nebraska.

U.S. Senate candidate Dan Osborn speaks during his campaign stop at Sly's Family Bar and Grill in Neligh, Nebraska. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

He'll face off in the midterms with former union leader Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who is making his second straight run for the Senate.

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Democratic nominee and former pharmacy technician Cindy Burbank is likely to drop out of the race and support Osborn in the general election.