Sam Forstag projected to win Democratic primary in Montana's 1st District

Democrat Sam Forstag won his party's primary in Montana's 1st Congressional District on Tuesday, CBS News projects. 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the House race as likely Republican, but Democrats believe they have a chance to flip the open seat in November as they try to retake the majority for the final two years of President Trump's second term. 

The seat is currently held by GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, who announced his retirement in early March, citing health issues from his time as a Navy SEAL as the driving factor for his decision. Zinke said he risked missing votes in the future as he recovers from medical treatment. 

Zinke first represented Montana in Congress beginning 2015, taking a hiatus from 2017 to 2019 to lead the Department of Interior during President Trump's first term. He resigned from the Cabinet role amid ethics investigations. He ran again for Congress in 2022, beating his Democratic opponent by three percentage points. In a rematch in 2024, he increased his lead to nearly eight percentage points. 

If Forstag wins the House race in November, it would be the first time in 30 years that a Democrat has represented Montana in the lower chamber. 

"The way you win an election in this state, and I actually think the way you actually have some path to victory for the national party, is A: you win back working people, right?" Forstag told CBS News in an interview earlier this year.  

"We've got to win back union members like me, who have felt like both parties have abandoned them. And we need to win back young people who feel like in a place like Western Montana, you've got a generation, or two generations of people that can't even conceive of ever owning a home in this state." 

Forstag, a smokejumper and union leader, had the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, and Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. The American Federation of Government Employees, the largest federal employee union, also endorsed Forstag. 

Ocasio-Cortez campaigned with Forstag in the final days of the campaign. 

"When something is burning in this state, Sam runs towards the fire. That's the kind of person he is, and that's the kind of person we have the opportunity to send to Congress," she said at a campaign rally in Missoula on Thursday. 

Forstag's primary challengers were former firearms company executive Ryan Busse, Navy veteran and rancher Russ Cleveland and Army veteran and rancher Matt Rains.