Questions are arising over Andy Burnham's stance on oil and gas
By
Scotland political correspondent
To drill or not to drill? That's one question that will await Andy Burnham when he enters 10 Downing Street.
The MP for Makerfield is expected to be confirmed as the UK's next prime minister in the coming days after securing the support of nearly 350 Labour MPs.
On Tuesday, with 24 hours until the leadership nominations deadline, Burnham was issued with a letter from the oil and gas industry and trade unions calling on him - and all other Labour MPs - to "back North Sea oil and gas".
The UK government will shortly have to decide whether to give the green light to two oil fields – Rosebank and Jackdaw.
Labour's 2024 manifesto is fairly strong in this area.
It states: "We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis".
But Rosebank and Jackdaw are slightly different, as the wheels were in motion before Labour came to power.
And so, what Labour decides to do under Andy Burnham could give us an indication of what his attitude to the North Sea is likely to be.
The oil and gas industry has called on the next Labour government to back the sector
It's not just the unions and industry who are lobbying him. His own Labour colleagues are too.
There are those who want to see a more liberal approach to drilling.
They hope the Makerfield MP's background – coming from part of the country affected by de-industrialisation – may mean he's open more sympathetic to the industry.
And one MP pointed out the incoming prime minister faces pressure on this front from a diverse range of voices – from members of the public concerned about bills, to Donald Trump who constantly advocates more drilling in the North Sea.
The letter which went to Labour MPs said support for the oil and gas industry is "a signal that the country remains committed to producing, building and manufacturing.
"It is a signal that government backs the people and places that have powered this country for generations," the letter stated.
That reads a lot like a sentence that was written to appeal to Andy Burnham. A politician who proudly claims to put "place first".
But the incoming PM is also facing concerted lobbying from his own environmentalist MPs.
Protests against the plans have made it to London
It's not escaped their attention that Westminster has been experiencing a sweltering summer – a clear example of the impact of climate change.
And they believe the correct approach is to avoid further drilling, but instead double down on moving forward with renewables.
"Andy embodies the challenge", is how the same MP put it to me.
They pointed out that he'd taken action on the climate when he was Mayor of Greater Manchester, with a big focus on public transport availability.
But at the same time he'd witnessed the effects of certain industries fading away in the North West of England.
There does seem to be a feeling amongst a number of Scottish Labour MPs that Burnham is likely to adopt a more liberal attitude to North Sea drilling than the outgoing administration.
And there are even reports now that Ed Miliband - who previously described the licence issued to Rosebank as "climate vandalism" - could be open to granting consent to the Jackdaw field.
Perhaps this is all the result of a changing political climate, as Labour is not the only party inching in this direction.
There seems to have also been evolution within the SNP.
In 2023, Nicola Sturgeon's administration set out a presumption against new drilling.
And in 2021, she told the Holyrood chamber that the Cambo oil field off Shetland should not go ahead.
At this point it felt like the Scottish government was opposed to increasing development in the North Sea.
Fast forward to 2026. We've had a cost of living crisis, the war in Ukraine has dragged on, and passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.
John Swinney's attitude seems to have adapted with these circumstances.
This First Minister seemed to soften his stance on new drilling earlier this year, saying that energy security should be considered in any new decisions on further exploration.
And when the new economy secretary in Scotland, Stephen Flynn, won his north east seat in May's Holyrood election, he made it clear he'd be a vocal "champion" for those working in the oil and gas sector.
Decisions 'in due course'
Recently the SNP MSP Jack Middleton – who represents Aberdeen Central – called for both Rosebank and Jackdaw to go ahead, saying "we should be decreasing our reliance on countries in the middle east and from friends of Vladimir Putin".
He's a former advisor to John Swinney, and though the Scottish government won't take a firm stance on any drilling decision, they seem to be entirely relaxed about SNP politicians making interventions like this.
Even for the Conservatives, who have always been fairly sympathetic to oil and gas exploration, the rhetoric has been dialled up.
Kemi Badenoch has promised to "get Britain drilling", a pledge that seemed go down well with the people of Aberdeen South in a recent Westminster by-election, who elected a Conservative MP.
When it comes to both Rosebank and Jackdaw, the UK government position is that decisions will be made "in due course".
Andy Burnham will be presented with a plethora of difficult political calls the moment he crosses the threshold of 10 Downing Street.
Defence funding, welfare bills and immigration policy will all require his attention.
But amidst all of this, he will have to signal – fairly swiftly – the approach he plans to take when it comes to the future of the North Sea.
It feels like that inevitably involves letting down at least some in his own party, and some of the public too.
