Second half of summer to bring chances for rain but heatwave threat persists
ByBen Rich
Lead Weather Presenter
The UK's weather may turn a little more changeable during the second half of summer with spells of rain featuring in some long-range forecasts.
There is also a high chance that temperatures will remain largely above average during late July and August and further heatwaves cannot be ruled out.
The season so far has been notable for its heat, with a number of records broken - including some which date back to the notorious summer of 1976.
A lack of rain has also been a big part of summer with some places in southern England seeing no measurable rain for more than four weeks.
Hosepipe bans are in force for millions of households and dry vegetation has provided fuel for wildfires to burn in a number of areas.
Rain may return after prolonged dry spell for many
Current trends suggest a chance of more changeable weather during the second half of summer.
However, the signals from computer weather models are rather mixed meaning there is a lot of uncertainty.
The latest sub-seasonal forecast from DTN - the BBC's weather data supplier - suggests that areas of low pressure will feature more prominently over the next couple of weeks, especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
This would mean an increase in wet weather.
However the Azores high, a semi-permanent large area of high pressure over the North Atlantic which can block weather fronts from reaching the UK, is likely to be close by. This will keep things drier, although not necessarily completely so.
Temperatures are most likely to remain above the seasonal norm, especially in England and Wales where further hot spells or heatwaves are possible into early August.
The latest Met Office long range forecast hints at similar conditions, suggesting that "the influence of high pressure may wane somewhat" during the final part of July.
This would mean an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, initially in the north of the UK but with rain eventually spreading southwards at times.
The Met Office forecast also suggests a changeable start to August, but with above-average temperatures and the chance of further hot spells.
Long-range forecasting is fraught with uncertainty.
The behaviour of our chaotic atmosphere generally becomes harder to predict the further into the future you gaze.
Forecasters are looking for overall trends rather than day-by-day detail and at the moment those trends look rather unclear.
Whatever your plans for the rest of the summer, you can always keep up to date with the latest forecasts on the BBC Weather app.
A historic summer so far
The summer of 2026 has already been extraordinary.
A late-spring heatwave that set a new May temperature record was followed by another heatwave in June, and a third in July which has lasted for two weeks in places.
New UK June temperature record: 37.7C at Lingwood, Norfolk, surpassing the previous record of 35.6C from 1976
New record for number of days reaching 35C or above: Six days this summer so far, surpassing the previous record of five days set in 1976
New record for number of days reaching 34C or above: Nine days this summer so far, surpassing the previous record of eight days set in 1976.
By 15 July, the UK had already recorded more days above 30C than in the whole of 1976 - a year that is remembered by many for its iconic and long-lasting heatwave.
This year is is also the first on record when 35C or above has been reached in three separate calendar months - May, June and July.
What is causing this summer heat?
A number of factors have combined to drive the hot weather that we have seen so far this summer.
Persistent areas of high pressure have allowed heat to build underneath them, and the lack of rain has allowed the ground to dry out.
Dry land encourages higher temperatures because less of the Sun's energy is used in evaporating moisture, leaving more available to heat the ground and the air.
Mean temperatures - which factor in daytime and overnight values - have been well above average in most parts of the UK over the summer so far
Sea-surface temperatures around the UK have been much higher than normal, with a so-called marine heatwave continuing around our shores.
This reduces the usual cooling effect of the sea and can help to hold temperatures up over land, especially at night.
One other key factor is climate change.
Scientists are confident that human-induced warming is making heatwaves more frequent and more intense.
In its latest State of the UK Climate report, the Met Office says weather that used to be classed as extreme is becoming the "new normal".
It says the climate we used to know in the 20th century is now a thing of the past, with the UK warming approximately 0.25C per decade since the 1980s.
